Pilot Ridge Weather

[Idalia Tsavaris]

((NOTE: As a student in Meteorology (2014) I am going to try my hand at forecasting for Burlington, VT (Pilot Ridge adjacent), identifier: KBTV. These forecasts are mostly the result of forecasters from the National Weather Service as well as ADDS, Weather Underground, UCAR's Weather Data, and many others. I will be taking a forecasting class in the fall and spring but until then I will be relying heavily on the forecasts done by others (likely when I start learning there will be major changes). Eventually I will start to do my own forecasts when I get more comfortable. I'll try to update every few days. This is my first time doing something like this so bear with me and if you have any suggestions or weather variables that you would like to know let me know. Any and all feedback is appreciated! -Izy))

(MMDDYYYY)
05022013

"Good morning, Burlington! I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris here with your weekend forecast. Let's take a look at the satellite images for today."



"What your seeing his is an abundant lack of cloud cover. It's shaping up to be another dry day. Due to the lack of rain we've been had recently the public is asked to take special care with fire. Parks and recreation are asked to keep people aware of the risk for brush fires."



"Brush fires are extremely dangerous as they can spread quickly despite the lack of wind due to the amount of dry grass. We encourage everyone to be extra careful and have been asked to remind everyone that a permit is needed to kindle a fire.

"Speaking of rainfall let's take a quick look at the radar image."

Radar


"Pretty clear all around, it's shaping up to be a very nice weekend. Taking a look at our twelve hour forecast."



"We can see that high pressure system just sitting right over us. This is going to prolong this warm and dry weather so if you're looking for something to do this weekend it will be perfect weather for outdoor activities.

"Now lets take a look at the weekend temperatures. Today, we're looking to get into the upper 70s dropping down to the high 40s tonight. Friday, Saturday and Sunday are going to be beautiful clear days in the lower to mid-70s, with Sunday climbing back up to those upper 70s.

"For the week ahead were looking at these high temperatures sticking around with a potential for thunderstorms starting on Thursday and going into Friday which may bring some relief from this dry spell.

"With that, I hope everyone gets out and enjoys this gorgeous weather we're going to have this weekend."


((Also Note: Images change due to the links set by them... I'll try to figure out how to fix this. Sorry all!))

[Idalia Tsavaris]

((Hopefully these images don't change >.<))

05052013

"Good evening, I'm Chief Meteorology Idalia Tsavaris. I hope you're out enjoying this good weather, as we're about to see some rain here in the next few days. The temperatures are going to hang in the 80s until Wednesday when we will see a dip in the temperatures as the rain come in around Thursday. The rain will hang around until around Mother's Day on Sunday.

"The rain will be coming in as part of a cold front from Canada. Following that will be a warm front which will bring another chance for rain on Saturday so we're looking at a lower chance of rain on Saturday. On Sunday we're going to get another much stronger cold front coming through out area. This is going to bring steady rain and colder temperatures. We're looking to drop into the 50s again come Sunday, so soak up this warm weather while you can, cause the next few days you're going to want to have an umbrella handy.



"Here we see the surface precipitation map for Thursday as predicted.



"Shown here is the precipitation for Sunday. As you can see we're going to get hit by some steady rain, but we're not looking to see too much precipitation accumulating. If you're headed up toward Maine this weekend be on the look out for heavy rain. If you're traveling for Mother's Day this weekend expect rain all the way up the East Coast and down into the South. Be careful on those roads and have a great night."

[Idalia Tsavaris]

((Okay, so due to the nature of these images they will keep updating themselves until I figure out a way to upload them individually. So until then, I'm gonna do the best I can without them! Any pointers on this would be lovely!))

"Good evening Vermont, I'm Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris here to tell you a little bit about what you can expect for this weekend and up coming week. First, I have to tell you a little bit about the delicious treats at the Hammel Bake Sale. I got some wonderful desserts from a Ms. Alexis Amaros who made these beyond delicious vegan cupcakes. There are so many talented bakers at Hammel and I definitely recommend them for next cake request.

Now let's get into your forecast. This weekend is going to be nice and cool. We're still seeing temperatures in the 70s for the most part this weekend. You'll see a few clouds here and there but expect to see quite a bit of sun. This is beautiful weekend weather. We're not expecting it to be too hot, nor too cold. And..."

Idalia hated when her visions came and she was on the air. She blinked and her smiled returned.

"Sorry about that, and we're looking into some showers starting up on Monday. It's gonna be a wet week, but don't despair we're looking at few showers off and on and it will be a great way to clear the air of any of this lingering pollen.

"Temperatures this week are going to be up in the mid to low 70s with Tuesday looking to jump up to the high 70s. We're expecting a few popup thunderstorms come Tuesday which will be followed by some of those cooler temperatures again.

"Finally toward the end of the week we can see those clouds clearing out and we're going to see the sun again. With that, have a wonderful weekend."

[Idalia Tsavaris]

05272013

"Happy Memorial Day! I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris, lets go ahead and take a look at the weather coming up this week. We're looking at some clear weather today, a nice relief from the dreary weather we've been having. Today it's going to be nice and cool, perfect for cooking out and concluding this three day weekend.

"First off, we are on the lookout for some patchy frost looking to come across some of the sheltered boundaries, but overall we're looking at just some isolated areas.

"We're going to see some higher temperatures coming in starting on Tuesday and we're looking to see the upper eighties by the end of this week. These warmer temperatures are going to bring an increase chance in isolated thunderstorms throughout the area. We're watching that primarily on Wednesday and Thursday. These are going to be mostly due to the warming of the earth by a Warm Front coming through from the South on Wednesday night. We should see a little bit of spotty thunderstorms if the convection is high enough. We'll see dry weather again on Friday with more storms moving in on Saturday and Sunday with a cool front.

"This front is going to come along with a lot of instability that we are going to keep an eye out for you as there is a potential for these storms to grow."

[Idalia Tsavaris]

06092013

“Good afternoon! I’m Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris. Let’s go ahead and jump into your upcoming week.

“We’re gonna be starting off this week with rain. A lot and a lot of rain. We’ve got a lot of moisture advection bringing clouds into our area ahead of a cyclone. We might get a little bit of fog coming into the area tonight. Tomorrow morning we’ll have this low moving into the area which will bring rain into our area starting Monday night to Tuesday morning.

“We may get a little bit of thunder from some instability shown in the model and some higher winds Monday night. We’re looking to set up for a long week of rain so make sure you have your umbrella and make sure you keep a hold on it just in case the wind tries to take it away.

“Finally Wednesday into Thursday we’ve got a ridge coming through which will bring some nice high pressure and nice weather out way. This system should stick around in our area for some time into the weekend so hopefully we’ll see some good weather for Father’s Day.

“Your temperatures are going to be in the higher seventies, we might even see an eighty on Monday. Once this fain comes through though we’re going to see a decrease in temperatures and we should be hovering right around seventy Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Hopefully we’ll see higher temperatures coming back on Friday and sticking around through the weekend.

“Stay dry this week!”

[Idalia Tsavaris]

06182013

"Good evening! I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris. Let's jump right in here. We have a high pressure system sitting over our area which means we're going to see a lot of clear weather in the next few days.

"Finally we're also going to be having a clear and sunny weekend! We're going to be seeing temperatures creep up slowly into the weekend and we should be reaching the upper seventies and lower eighties by Saturday and Sunday. Glorious weather be sure to get out there an enjoy it.

"We're going to get a lot of surface heating which will bring us a few clouds here and there on Thursday night. Because we're going to get all of this sunlight coming through we're going to get a lot of surface heating. When the surface is heated it causes some instability in the atmosphere and this will bring potential for some convection and possible storms. Such storms should be isolated and if they are going to occur it will be on Sunday night."

Idalia winked now her visions having given her a little bit of a clue.

"But these storms are unlikely to strike a wide area which is why we have only about a 20 to 30 percent chance of storms.

"As always we have our pollen alerts. If there's a day we haven't had one of these since spring started I'll be surprised! We're looking mostly at tree and grass pollen. It could cause some irritation for all of us but if you have known allergies to pollen you might wanna just keep an eye out for the warnings and please take heed to them.

"Enjoy this weather and have a good night."

[Idalia Tsavaris]

07012013

"Good evening, I'm Idalia Tsavaris with your Fourth of July weather!

"Sadly we're looking at rain from now through the Fourth. Light to moderate rain will be in our area for the next few days due to a stalled front that's causing all of this rain to build up and just drown us. There are flash flood warnings out for this area through the night through tomorrow night. So be careful. Don't drive through water as it can be deeper than it looks and can have a current. Be careful walking and if you're making your commute this week make sure to bring an umbrella.

"Due to a high off the coast moving toward the east coast we're going to get a lot of movement and southern air headed our way. We're going to get rain storms from all the moisture and chances of some convective thunderstorms are possible throughout the next few days. When the rain finally moves out we're looking at some hot and humid weather.

"We are gonna be up in the high eighties all week and into the weekend.

"Now, let's take a look at the Fourth of July: here is our projected precipitation."


Source: NCAR-RAL Real-Time Weather Data(Accessed July 1, 2013)

"So as you can see we're gonna see a lot of rain. About a 40% chance all day with scattered thunderstorms during the hot day due to the surface heating, then it should cool off a little and showers will continue into the night. It's not boding very well for fireworks at this time but we will keep you informed. Have a good night and stay dry!"

[Idalia Tsavaris]

07082012

"Good afternoon, Vermont! I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris with your week ahead. We're looking to have a little more rain coming up with a Low pressure system moving through our area, followed by a cyclone and low pressure heading through the area on Wednesday.

"Starting Tuesday we'll start to see a chance of showers due to the air mass hanging over us. Scattered showers are likely around the area. So keep that umbrella handy. Later on Wednesday we might see come convection kicking up a thunderstorm or two.

"Going into Thursday we're going to see a little bit less of a chance of thunderstorms but we are keeping a look out on an approaching cold front. We're going to have a lot of rainy and cloudy days ahead of us but we're looking to see some sun on Friday. Great end of the workday if we do get that sunshine.

"Our temperatures are going to be hovering around the low eighties.

"Lastly, let's say hello to Tropical Storm Chantal! She'd not projected at this time to hit anywhere near us but there's a chance for our friends in Florida to get him. Chantal is currently out in the Open Atlantic and heading in a northwest direction toward the Caribbean Islands.

"We'll be having our tropical expert Meteorologist David Sun on a little later to tell you all about the tropical weather this summer."

[Idalia Tsavaris]

07282013

"Good evening Vermont! I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris. I seem to only forecast the bad weather right? So let's go ahead and get to it. It's gonna be a rainy beginning to the week with showers likely starting tonight and going into Monday due to a slow moving low pressure systems coming from the Great Lakes. However, we're gonna see sunny skies again soon.

"Look forward to pleasant temperatures in the upper seventies for the week to come with a little bit of creeping into the eighties in the middle of the week.

"But, after that we're going to get a trough passing through the area which is going to bring us more showers and we may even seen a bit of lightning in these coming storms.

"This week is going to lead into another very rainy weekend and we'll be seeing cooler temperatures in the low seventies reaching a minimum Sunday and Monday. This trough will likely stick around until Monday leaving a chance of rain throughout the weekend.

"Goodnight and stay dry!"

[Idalia Tsavaris]

((Woohoo sorry it's been so long since I've given you a weather update but I have to say this is gonna be a lot different than previous as now I actually kinda know what I'm doing haha!! I'm hoping to do these more often now. - Izy))


Overview:
[According to Tony] Burlington is the closest major city to Pilot Ridge and the nearest National Weather Service Station is present in Burlington, VT (map below). Map 2 shows current snow cover over Burlington and the adjacent area as being between 4"-6". This is going to increase the albedo of the surface and reflect back a lot of the heat that would normally be absorbed by the ground. Burlington is to the east of Lake Champlain, which is a narrow lake and the distance across is likely to limit the effects of any lake effect precipitation.


Map 1: Map of Vermont, Burlington highlighted.


Map 2: Current snow cover as of 23 at 0400Z.

01232014

Forecast Briefing for KBTV

"Good evening, I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris and we're going to look into the tomorrow's forecast. It had been a cold winter for us here in Vermont this year. For tomorrows climatology we have a high of 27 F and a low of around 10 F. However our persistence has been much colder, sometimes up to thirty degrees below climatology. Our high temperature for yesterday reached -2 F and our low was -13 F. Due to this persistent high we haven't had any precipitation. These low temperatures are the result of this persistent strong trough over most of the eastern United States. This is what is bringing all of that arctic air down to us and the strong ridge that has been hanging in over the west coast for the past week just keeps amplifying trough after trough that keeps bringing these arctic air masses our way.

Currently we are seeing very little in the way of forcing for ascent and though we're seeing light cloud cover over the area we expect those to break a little into the day tomorrow and allow for a little bit of heating. Moving into our forecast for tomorrow. This trough is starting to lift out which means we may see a little bit of relief from these polar temperatures. Though with the persistence of clouds and the amount of moisture from this system expect a little bit of haze toward the beginning of the day. An Alberta Clipper over the Great Lakes is moving to the southeast as we go on through the day (Map 3), though we do not expect to see and precipitation from this system as it moves just to the South of Burlington, some of you in the southern part of the state might see some precipitation associated with a weak cold front (Map 4) however it is unlikely that there will be any significant precipitation as the air mass is so dry. A strong high is going to be moving into the central planes and as that huge system moves eastward we're going to see persistent northerlies which are going to favor lower temperatures, and we're going to remain in the negatives and possibly a chance for something above zero.


Map 3: 12hr Forecast


Map 4: 18hr Forecast

In summary we're looking to see a little bit of haze tomorrow which may drop visibility a tad. We're going to see a low in the early morning around -16 F and our high tomorrow around Burlington is expected to get up to at least 1 F tomorrow.

Take caution with these low temperatures, bundle up and try to avoid being outdoors in this extreme cold. Bundle up and have a good night!"



Special Promo:

"Hi everyone!  I'm Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris.  Do you have a question about the weather?  The Polar Vortex for example?  What is an Alberta Clipper?  If you do and would like me to answer these questions on air contact me at: [e-mail]*."


*Shoot me a PM!

[Idalia Tsavaris]

((Okay, so I know I said I would be updating this more frequently, but it has been a busy semester. I'm making no more promises for consistency, but we do have some interesting weather, unfortunately not in Vermont but something to keep an eye on. -Izy))

04272014

Forecast Briefing for KBTV

“Good evening, I’m Chief Meteorologist Idalia Tsavaris here to give you a look at the start of our work week.

To start we are going to see a little bit better weather as these clouds you see here (Map 1) start to move out of our area. We’re looking at a little bit clearer skies as the air dries out due to the surface high to our North in Canada and give us a bit of sunshine tomorrow. We are going to be watching the low that is over the Great Plains area at the moment. This low is going to track to the northeast over the Great Lakes over the next few days, pushing this high pressure we’re under out over the ocean (Map 2). It is becoming stacked with the upper level closed low, which could lead to it losing energy, but not before it strengthens quite a bit over the Great Plains. The upper level trough that is interacting with the surface low is going to strengthen the upper level ridge over the eastern and western United states.

The surface high over Canada is going to be lifted north and east but the northerly winds hold on throughout Monday and the upper level ridge will hold on and we see a damming effect of the chillier air against the mountains which is going to prevent our temperatures from getting too much higher on Monday though it should be warmer than today (Map 3). Monday night and Tuesday we could see a few shortwave vorticity maximums through our area, which could give enough lifting for some precipitation. So even though we’re expecting to be north of the main precipitation shield, but with a little bit of lifting due to warm advection and moisture advection as our winds become more southeasterly we can’t rule out some light precipitation (Map 4).

For our temperatures we’re seeing northerly winds which are bringing cooler and dryer air, so we’ll have some clouds but the sun should be able to peak through and give us a little warmer air tomorrow. We’re going to see lows tomorrow morning in the mid to upper thirties and we should creep up into the mid fifties tomorrow afternoon. With our winds switching to a more southeasterly direction Monday night we’ll see a few more clouds in our area which will keep out low temperature for Tuesday a little warmer, around the lower forties.

Stay tuned and we’ll keep you updated on any precipitation coming later in the week.”



Map 1: Infrared Satellite - Northeast



Map 2: 36hr Forecast Valid 4/29 0000Z



Map 3: 42hr Forecast Valid 4/29 0600Z



Map 4: 48hr Forecast Valid 4/29 1200Z